The leaders are tired. The frames are breaking. And bounce? Looks like bait.
Hanging by Threads
The leaders are tired. The frames are breaking. And bounce? Looks like bait.
BTC is slipping under its short-term weight. From the 1H through 6H, structure is gone. Price hasn’t collapsed — but it’s leaning hard. RSI, MACD, CMF — they’re all cooling. The daily still looks decent, but momentum is decaying, and weekly Stoch RSI is curling. It’s not a dump yet. But erosion has a timer, and it’s ticking.
ETH already hit that timer. 1H to 6H are shot. Price lost the trend and isn’t reclaiming it. 12H and 1D still float above DEMA, but momentum is fading fast. RSI dropped from 80 to 60. MACD turned. Stoch RSI dove. Weekly’s still pushing, but even that’s wobbling. Buyers are gone. Price is still up, but the structure underneath is sliding sideways.
SOL is one step behind ETH, same pattern. 1H and 2H gone. 4H to 6H rolling. 12H holding structure but momentum dying. Daily still says “bullish” on paper, but CMF is flattening, RSI topping, and buyers look bored. It had its shot above 200 — it didn’t take it. Now it’s grinding down.
And AAVE? Already jumped. Structure is wrecked. Momentum is gone. RSI is bleeding across every frame. CMF confirms it. Only question is whether we get a fake bounce or a direct flush. The setup favors trap, then drop.
Last week, we called the top tension building. Now we’re watching it unravel. Slowly, but precisely. Not a collapse, not yet — but all the signs are flashing.
→ Watch the reclaim zones. Ignore the noise. Trade the cracks.
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→ Read below for full zone breakdowns and setups
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AAVEUSDT – Teetering on the Edge
AAVE just threw itself off a cliff. From top to bottom, every timeframe is now part of the wreckage.
But—there’s something brewing under the surface. Could it bounce? Yes. Should you trust it? Hell no. Not yet.
Price sliced through the 12H and daily 420 DEMA like it wasn’t there. RSI is oversold on the 4H, 6H, 12H—but there’s no sign of strength, no bullish divergence, no reversal pattern.
And yet, we’re hovering. 290. Flatlining. Market wants to bounce. It’s trying.
But it’s too clean. Too easy. That bounce? It’ll likely just be a trap.
MACD on every chart under 1D is still free-falling. Daily MACD just flipped red. Weekly still barely bullish, but curling down.
So yeah, maybe we get a dead-cat bounce to 298–303. Maybe shorts take some profits.
But structurally? This thing is broken.
CMF is negative across the board. No inflow. No strength. Stoch RSI is dead in the water.
Even the 1H shows no pressure upward. Just sideways bleeding.
The prediction?
A brief fake bounce — then another leg down to 278–265 unless bulls show up with size.
If they don’t defend hard and flip the 6H MACD, this keeps dropping.
Maybe slowly. Maybe violently. But down.
Above 303–305, bulls might regain short-term control.
Below 278? They lose the weekly too.
So here we are.
Balanced on a razor.
→ Expect the see-saw: bounce, reject, flush.
→ Wait for confirmation. Or get flipped.
This isn’t a dip to buy.
This is a structure to watch crack wider.
BTCUSDT – Holding the line, but slipping on the grip
What we seeBTC is balancing around 118.2K, and while the higher timeframes still look healthy, the short frames are clearly running out of juice. Price is stuck under the 1H to 6H DEMA clusters, with no reclaim yet. On the 1H, RSI is 49.75, MACD still bearish, and DMI shows negative bias building. Stoch RSI is peaking. The 2H and 4H try to show signs of life, but they’re weak — RSI barely above 50, MACD already curling again.
12H holds structure — price is still above all DEMA bands — but momentum is rolling fast. MACD just flipped red. DMI turned bearish. CMF is flat. On the daily, same story: structure intact, but the push is gone. RSI at 62.49 is slipping. MACD has peaked. It’s a soft top.
Weekly still trends — RSI near 69, MACD strong, CMF solid. But even here, Stoch RSI is maxed out and curling. This is the top of the wave, not the start.
The last attempt at 119.8K lacked force. There was no rejection candle, just exhaustion. Momentum drained out across all the short frames. MACD rolled over, RSI couldn’t stay above 60. Volume backed off. 12H gave us the flip. It’s not a warning anymore — it’s a shift in motion.
Expect one more bounce — probably into 119.3 to 119.5K. That’s likely the trap zone. If BTC doesn’t break and hold above 119.6K, shorts will press. Break 117.2K, and we’re opening the floor toward 115K.
This isn’t a collapse. It’s erosion. And that tends to end with a sharp move.Watch the reclaim.
ETHUSDT – Clean trend, soft knees
ETH is sitting near 3,595 and for the first time in weeks, it looks unsure of itself. The entire short-term structure has cracked — price is well below all major DEMA bands on the 1H, 2H, and 4H, and the 6H is slipping fast. RSI readings on these frames range from the mid-30s to low 40s, MACD is deep in the red, and Stoch RSI has bottomed out without curling. CMF readings are mostly negative or flat, showing no fresh inflow. The lower timeframes aren’t just pulling back — they’re unwinding. Meanwhile, the 12H still holds its bullish layout with price sitting above all DEMA levels, but the engine is failing. MACD has just flipped bearish, RSI is dropping from 80 down toward the 60s, and DMI has crossed. The structure is intact, but the momentum has left the building. Daily is in a similar state: RSI still reads 74, but the curve has turned, and CMF is flattening. MACD is holding green for now, but barely. It looks more like a peak than a plateau.
Weekly still holds, no doubt. Price is far above the DEMA cluster, MACD is strong, RSI is in the mid-60s, and CMF remains positive. But there’s no thrust left. Stoch RSI is pinned at the top and curling slightly. If this starts dragging further into the week, even the weekly will flatten. ETH’s rally to 3,800 didn’t come with pauses, and now we’re watching the cost of that move. The buyers stepped out. The volume dried up. What’s left is a gap between perception and structure — the charts still look strong from a distance, but the foundation is already leaking. Without a strong reclaim above 3,705, we’ll likely bleed into 3,500, then 3,380, and possibly even lower.
When we last analyzed this, we called it for what it was: overextended and due for a slide. That forecast held. No dramatic rejection, but everything we flagged — the slowing RSI, peaking MACD, stretched DEMA gaps — is now playing out. ETH didn’t snap, it sagged. We were early by a candle or two, but directionally right. This isn’t collapse, it’s controlled fatigue.
SOLUSDT – The fuel’s gone, the frame is shaking
SOL is slipping into its midrange after weeks of aggressive vertical movement. Price has lost the 1H and 2H structure completely and is now hovering beneath key DEMA levels with no real support. RSI values are weak, mostly between the 30s and 40s, MACD is bleeding red across all short frames, and CMF has gone flat or negative. Even the 4H and 6H, which had some space left, are now rolling. The 12H still holds a clean layout with price above the DEMA stack, but the signs of exhaustion are no longer subtle — RSI is down from the 70s, Stoch RSI collapsed, and MACD is rolling flat. The daily is still technically bullish, but momentum is clearly thinning. Stoch RSI is starting to tip, MACD is losing slope, and CMF is beginning to flatten. The weekly’s still fine, but that’s often the last to react — and we’re already seeing that slow curve at the top.
We’ve entered the “should have cooled down earlier” phase. The market had every opportunity to step off the gas at 200–205, but instead it verticaled again — and now the RSI is exhausted, and the trend is stalling from the bottom up. This isn’t a full unwind yet, but all the pressure is pointing one way. If 188.5 cracks and no bounce follows, we’re heading straight into 185 and then the 180–178 zone, where real support waits. Any attempt to bounce into 193.5–194 is a probable short zone unless the 6H MACD flips bullish with RSI reclaiming 60+. Right now, the engine is still running — but no one’s pushing it forward.
Last time we said SOL was overcooked and leaning. That wasn’t a guess. Every short frame cracked right after, and momentum followed exactly as expected. It didn’t break instantly, but it rolled — and we called that roll. We’re not at the bottom, and we’re not collapsing. But the setup is the same: hold, fake strength, and drift lower. Same structure, same shape. Different level.
📜 Disclaimer
The content in this publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor.
Any opinions, strategies, or analyses shared reflect my personal views and experiences. I may hold positions in the cryptocurrencies mentioned (e.g., BTC, ETH, SOL), which could influence my perspective.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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