Solana at the Crossroads: Bearish Structure Persists, But Momentum Is Shifting – 2026 02 20
📽️ Watch : Solana at the Crossroads 2026 02 20
SOL closes the day at $83.87, and while that number sits firmly inside bearish territory, the technical picture today is noticeably different from where we stood ten days ago. On February 10, our aggregate indicator score was −12.5/30. Today it reads −3.5/30 — a clear improvement driven by MACD histogram flips across every timeframe from 2H through to the daily chart. The daily MACD histogram has moved from −1.88 to +1.34, confirming that bearish momentum is genuinely decelerating, even if the trend itself has not reversed.
That trend remains dominant. The daily ADX stands at 58.90 — one of the strongest readings we have tracked — with −DI at 31.68 far above +DI at 11.48. Price is 27% below the 1D MA1 at $106.75. There is no structural reversal here, and anyone treating today’s recovery from the $79.58 weekly low as a trend change is getting ahead of the data.
What deserves attention is the weekly Stochastic RSI printing K=0.00, D=0.00 — absolute mathematical zero. Historically, this extreme has preceded sharp short-covering bounces. It does not signal the end of the bear move, but it raises the risk of a violent squeeze for anyone holding aggressive short positions at current levels.
The key zone to watch is $84.07 to $85.53 — the 4H and 6H MA1 cluster. Price is testing this band from below right now. A confirmed close above $85.53 with positive CMF would be the first meaningful near-term bullish signal we have seen since late January. Until then, our bias stays short on strength. The $79.58 weekly low is the critical floor — if that breaks on volume, the next structural support sits near $65–$70.
Our 24H base case is 50% probability of consolidation between $82 and $86, with the 4H MA1 at $84.07 acting as the key pivot. The bear scenario at 35% targets a retest of $79.50–$83.00 if this bounce stalls. The bull scenario at 15% requires a clean, sustained reclaim of $85.53 before it becomes worth tracking.
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SOL/USDT Perpetual (Bybit)
Technical Analysis for SOL/USDT.P
Advanced Chart for SOL/USDT.P
This chart visually represents the consensus indicator scores across all analyzed timeframes, providing a clear, at-a-glance view of the prevailing market sentiment.
-1 = Bearish 🧸 ,+1=Bullish 🐂 ,+-0.5 weak Bullish/Bearish , 0(0.5-0.5) = Neutral
This chart plots the key price levels—floor, resistance, and ceiling—that we identified for each timeframe. It helps in visualizing the critical support and resistance zones.
Disclaimer
The content in this publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor.
Any opinions, strategies, or analyses shared reflect my personal views and experiences. I may hold positions in the cryptocurrencies mentioned (e.g., BTC, ETH, SOL), which could influence my perspective.
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